Here’s a fresh look at the 2025 Ballon d’Or race, zooming in on Ousmane Dembélé, Lamine Yamal, and Raphinha — comparing their strengths, what might swing things in their favour, and who among them could walk away with the prize.
Each of the three has had a standout season, but their cases are different. The award usually balances:
- Trophies won — both domestic league and cups, especially the Champions League
- Statistical output — goals, assists, big-moment performances
- Consistency and moments — big matches, decisive goals, leadership
- Narrative / story — overcoming adversity, improvement, breakthrough, etc.
So in comparing Dembélé, Yamal, and Raphinha, those are the axes to measure them on.
How They Compare
Here are the key stats and qualitative edges for each, based on recent season data (2024-25) and other available sources.
| Player | Key Achievements / Trophies | Statistical Output 2024-25 | Special Strengths / Narrative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | Helped PSG win major honours, including the Champions League. Big trophies tend to weigh heavily in Ballon d’Or votes. (Talksport) | Approx. 33 goals + 15 assists in all competitions. (Threads) | He has been in the spotlight for a resurgence: once injured and criticized, he’s now delivering on big stages. Champions League final/semi performances matter. Also at a stage in his career where this could be the apex. |
| Lamine Yamal | Key figure in Barcelona’s domestic success (league title, cup wins etc.). Very young, so his rise itself is a strong narrative. (Wikipedia) | His output: assists are strong, and contributions in goals are significant. Exact numbers vary by source, but he has large numbers of goal involvements for his age. (India Today) | Youth + flair + consistency. Yamal brings excitement, technical skill, often decisive moments. Voters often give extra weight to a player who looks like a star of the future. |
| Raphinha | Named LaLiga Player of the Season for 2024-25. Contributed heavily to Barcelona’s domestic treble (La Liga, Copa del Rey, plus other domestic titles). (Reuters) | Very strong numbers: 34 goals + 25 assists in ~57 club matches across all competitions. In La Liga specifically: 18 goals, 9 assists in 36 appearances. Champions League also saw good returns. (Transfermarkt) | His narrative includes being a critical player, stepping up in big games, and delivering consistency. After a few seasons, this might be his peak moment. Also, awards like LaLiga MVP give him credibility among voters. |
What Could Tip the Balance
To win the Ballon d’Or, any one of them not only needs good stats and trophies, but also to outshine the others in certain areas. Here are the likely tipping points:
- Champions League impact: Goals / decisive moments in the semis/final tend to carry disproportionate weight. If Dembélé has better showings there, that gives him an edge.
- Consistency across competitions: Domestic + European + national team (if relevant) performances — gaps or dips hurt voters.
- Big moments & visibility: Goals in finals, key matches, turning around games, memorable plays. Narrative matters.
- Age / story / breakthrough: Yamal’s youth is an advantage. Raphinha may be seen as reaching his prime. Dembélé has redemption and “finally delivering” story. These stories can sway subjective votes.
- Voter biases / region / media: Sometimes players from more visible leagues or clubs get more attention; also how much a player is already considered “Ballon d’Or-worthy” in media coverage.
My View: Who Has the Edge
If I had to rank the three by who is most likely to win, here’s how I see it:
- Ousmane Dembélé
He probably has the strongest all-round case: team trophies (especially the Champions League), big performances, a compelling comeback/upscale story. If voters prioritize winning Europe’s biggest club prize + individual clutch moments, he looks best placed. - Raphinha
Very close behind, especially given his enormous statistical season and LaLiga MVP recognition. If some voters favour pure output + domestic dominance + “most consistent across matches,” Raphinha could sneak it. His narrative of stepping up consistently helps. - Lamine Yamal
He has the least mature career to date, though his upside and breakout status are huge. If Yamal had tilted performances in Europe or against top opposition in clutch moments, he might push further. But unless he has a few signature “big match moments” that steal the spotlight, he may fall just short this year — but still the favourite of many among under-23 / rising stars.
Prediction: Who I Think Will Win
Putting together trophies + impact + narrative + stats, I believe Ousmane Dembélé is the most probable winner of the 2025 Ballon d’Or.
If it’s not him, my bet would go to Raphinha as the most likely upset. Yamal might win in a few years, but this season, I see it being a close race between Dembélé and Raphinha, with Dembélé just edging it.