The Ballon d’Or remains one of the most prestigious individual awards in football, awarded by France Football. Nominees are judged over the previous season rather than a calendar year. Key criteria typically include:
- Individual statistics (goals, assists, key performances)
- Team trophies (league titles, Champions League, etc.)
- Impact in big matches and consistency
(ESPN.com)
The 2025 shortlist for men contains 30 names, including stars from PSG, Barcelona, Liverpool, Real Madrid, and others. (ESPN.com)
What have the frontrunners done. Here are some of the standout achievements this past season that are influencing the debate:
- Ousmane Dembélé (PSG / France)
Very strong case: he played a central role in PSG’s treble-winning season, including the club’s first Champions League title. He had a high goals + assists tally. (Wikipedia)
- Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Young, dynamic, and very influential. Big domestic success (La Liga, Copa del Rey) and impressive contributions in attack. He also has the “younger factor” which tends to attract favourable attention if the performances are there. (Al Jazeera)
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool / Egypt)
Outstanding statistical season in the Premier League, strong goal involvement. Even though fewer big trophies compared to PSG’s haul, his consistency and leadership matter. (Sky Sports)
Other names in the mix: Vitinha (PSG), Raphinha (Barcelona), Kylian Mbappé, etc. But their cases seem slightly behind the top three at the moment. (Transfermarkt)
Top 3 Most Likely Candidates
Here are the three players I believe are most likely to win — listed in order, with the reasoning:
| Rank | Player | Why they’re a top contender | What could work against them |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Ousmane Dembélé | He has the strongest all-round case: team success (PSG treble including Champions League), high-impact performances, and a narrative of resurgence. Judges often favour players who win big trophies plus excel individually. (Wikipedia) | He has injured spells; also, sometimes voters prefer more “glamorous” names or younger rising stars. If there were any slip in key matches, that might cost him some margin. Also, overshadowed by standout moments by rivals could tilt votes. | |
| 2. Lamine Yamal | His youth + quality combo is very compelling. He has been instrumental for Barcelona in domestic competitions, often in big games. He carries a “breakthrough / rising star” story, which tends to resonate. If close, he could edge it on flair, consistency and potential. (Al Jazeera) | The downside is he hasn’t won the Champions League (or as many “big spectacular moments”) compared to Dembélé this season. Also, sometimes voters favour more mature, central‐impact players. Might be viewed as “almost there but not quite on the biggest stage.” | |
| 3. Mohamed Salah | Salah remains one of the most prolific forwards around. If you look at sheer numbers, leadership, consistency, and impact in the Premier League (which remains one of the most watched / valued leagues), he has a strong case. He might pick up points where others falter, or if people value his narrative or his amazing work rate. (Sky Sports) | But his team didn’t win the Champions League; also, sometimes newer younger narratives or “team victory” weigh more heavily. In short, to win he might need to rely on overperformance or voters wanting to “reward” his consistency rather than peak moments. |
My Prediction
If I had to pick one, I lean Ousmane Dembélé will win the 2025 Ballon d’Or. His combination of trophies plus standout performances gives him the edge. If there’s an upset, Lamine Yamal is the most likely one to pull it off.